RBRound 3
Kaelon Black
Pick 3.07 · 2026 Rookie Class
Major riser
56.2
Model Score
Monitor OnlySpeculative
Fair Value
46.0
Dynasty model
Market Price
32.1
Current market
Season Score
36.6
Model projection
Strong Starter13.8%
Starter or Better21.2%
Usable Contributor30.7%
Miss / Bust69.3%
Tier 6 - Deep WatchLate Watch OnlyRound 3 · Pick #90
Historical Comps
Volatile Recursive ProfileClear Early Role Path
High End
T.Chandler
Median
E.Gray
Low End
T.Ebner
Projected PPG Trajectory
Standard
1.1
Year 1
2.6
Year 2
1.2
Year 3
4.2
Peak
Upside Score25%
Failure Risk58%
Kaelon Black projects as a RB with Clear Early Role Path context. Trajectory: Y1 2.8, Y2 4.4, Y3 2.9, peak 4.2 PPG. Comps: high-end T.Chandler (6% match), median E.Gray (5% match), low-end T.Ebner (0% match).